Andrew Cuomo, New York’s governor, wants to deflect criticism for his own responsibility in sending COVID-19 patients into nursing homes. He is making a new false claim in the attempt to shift the blame elsewhere.
I select one statement of his to fact-check: “The facts are in. The numbers are in. Look at the number of bodies. Look at the infection rate. New York’s numbers have declined while the nation is going up.”
Yes, let’s look at the number of dead. This is no comfort whatsoever to the people who have had to face the death of loved ones. Few of us have been left untouched by such personal knowledge or by related anxiety over this illness and how it’s been addressed by politicians and public health leaders. But the number of dead does provide critical information, even though deaths attributed to COVID-19 are data that are noisy. They are corrupted by which deaths are assigned to COVID-19. To use these data, until and unless they can be cleaned up, we have to assume that the degree of miscounting is more or less equivalent across all the states.
The obvious way to examine the truth or falsity of Cuomo’s boasting is to look at per capita COVID-19 deaths across the states. That gives us a snapshot as of now as to New York’s standing. Maybe we’ll have a different snapshot 3 months or 6 months from now, but that will be then, not now. And right now, is Cuomo telling us the truth or is he making it up like a 5-year old denying he was playing with matches?
Cuomo is telling a bald-faced lie. He’s misleading everyone on purpose, both to save his skin, to criticize Trump, and to enhance his own standing. Deaths per capita across states and territories can be found at this web site. These data are very recent, dated July 13, 2020.
New Jersey has the highest (worst) COVID-19 death rate which is 175 per 100,000 population. New York is second at 166. So much for Andrew Cuomo’s credibility.
But let us go further into this matter and examine a political variable’s association with COVID-19 deaths.
The 12 worst COVID-19 states/territories and their political leadership are listed next. We find that 11 of the 12 worst states by death rates have Democratic leadership:
1. New Jersey, 175, DEMOCRATIC
2. New York, 166, DEMOCRATIC
3. Connecticut, 122, DEMOCRATIC
4. Massachusetts, 121, DEMOCRATIC
5. Rhode Island, 92, DEMOCRATIC
6. District of Columbia, 80, DEMOCRATIC
7. Louisiana, 73, DEMOCRATIC
8. Michigan, 63, DEMOCRATIC
9. Illinois, 58, DEMOCRATIC
10. Maryland, 55, REPUBLICAN
11. Pennsylvania, 54, DEMOCRATIC
12. Delaware, 53, DEMOCRATIC
This is an astonishing finding. The odds against this occurring by chance are enormous. This will pass a statistical test at a high level of confidence. It means that something systematic, something or things non-random, have occurred in Democratic-governed states; and that factor or factors have caused a higher COVID-19 death rate in those states.
10:34 am on July 14, 2020
Email Michael S. Rozeff